A Fragile Global Arena: How the Election of Donald Trump Could Impact Italy and the EU

Divisions or Autonomy? The EU’s Response to a Potential Trump Presidency

The number of radical parties and Eurosceptic forces within the European Parliament and Member States’ governments has been rising. Unlike 2017, when Trump first became President, the EU is now faces new challenges. It must deal with Russia’s unjustified Russian attacks to Ukraine,ongoing warfare, increasing conflicts in the Middle East, inflation and energy crisis.

In this fragmented geopolitical lamdscape, a strong alliance between the two sides of the Atlantic is more essential than ever. However, Trump’s dissatisfaction with multilateral institutions make this difficult. To advance his nationalist agenda, Trump does not need to strengthen traditional alliances. He could rely on like-minded heads of European leaders, which could undermine the EU’s internal unity and external influence. Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, could be one of them.

Indeed, her recent choice to receive the Global Citizen Award from the Atlantic Council, presented by Elon Musk, signals support for Trump. Giorgia Meloni,claims this decision was made without considering the U.S. Presidential candidates. It was based on Musk’s business and innovation skills. While Meloni’s close ties with a Trump supporter may open new opportunities for her within the EU, Trump’s election would not benefit Italy per se.

Economic and Security Challenges of Trump’s re-election

From an economic perspective, Trump would likely push for protectionism, in line with his „Make America Great Again“ approach. He would target countries with trade surpluses with the United States. In July 2024,the U.S.  trade deficit in goods and services reached $78.8 billion., This strategy would impact not just China, with a surplus of $279 billion last year, but also the European Union, which had a surplus of $208 billion.

Germany has the largest trade relationship with the U.S., boasting a surplus of $82 billion. The U.S. market is vital for Italian luxury goods, machinery, and pharmaceuticals, which could be threatened by domestic U.S. products. In June 2024, Italian exports to the U.S. totaled €45 billion, whileimports were only €18bilion,resulting in a surplus of €45 billion in 2023. These are indeed trade imbalances that Donald Trump might want to address. In his view, it would be up to the EU to stimulate its internal demand to reduce its trade dependency on the American market.

From a security standpoint, Trump’s proposal to stop the war in Ukraine could interest Italy. Thee Italian government has supported Ukraine but struggeld to reach a unanimous vote on a recent European Parliament resolution. While members of Brothers of Italy and Forza Italia voted in favor, the Legal party opposed it. There is growing fatigue in Italy regarding the conflict in Ukraine. With 38.5% of the Italians oppose sending weapons, and 37% believe sanctions against Russian negatively impact Italian economy.

As costs of the war increase, if the U.S. calls for an immediate halt to support for Ukraine, Meloni may follow it. This could lead to Russia probably winning the war and becoming a dangerous player on European borders. To remain protected by NATO, which is essential to the majority of the Europeans, Italy will likely need to increase military spending to up 2% of the GDP, as requested by the Alliance. Trump has made it clear that the US should not bear the cost of protecting Europe anymore.

Trump’s Political Narrative: Implications for Italy and the EU

Politically, Trump re-election could further fuel radical voices in Europe, particularly in Italy. On migration, which is the cornerstone of Giorgia Meloni’s political strategy, Trump has announced the largest deportation plan in US history. If this radical narrative gains acceptance in the U.S. – a country seen as a beacon of democracy and freedom-, it could encourage extreme views in Italy and across the EU.

Meloni has already diminished the number of arrivals by 64% compared to 2023, thanks also to the European agreements with Tunisia and Libya. At the same time, the government is also focusing on the establishment of centres for managing asylum requests in Albania, which could become a model for other EU member states.

Trump’s ideas closely align with Meloni’s agenda and his electorate. If re-elected, Trump could help Meloni build a closer relationship with him, increasing her influence both nationally and among European leaders. However, this is a dangerous game. Trump may pit European countries against each other, forcing Meloni to navigate difficult choices between Washington and Brussels.

In the past, Donald Trump’s elections heightened the call for an European Strategic Autonomy, urging the EU to unite and enhance its influence. This time, however, the EU’s ability to assert itself internationally may be undermined by the rise of far rights parties in many EU member countries, which could serve Trump interest.