The Western Balkan region was not immune to President Trump’s intent to “make America wealthy again”. This small European region, which recorded a GDP growth of 3.3% in 2024 and was expected to reach 3.7% in 2025, has been hit by the US highest individualized tariffs in Europe. GDP projections may soon be revised downward, especially since the worst-hit country by the US tariffs appears to be Serbia — one of the region’s strongest economies and possibly one of the regional leading powers. Serbia is indeed expected to face tariffs on its exports to the US of 37%. What could be interpreted as an American targeting to Serbia, which is one of the closest to Russia in the region, was however justified by the fact that, in 2024, the US registered a negative trade balance with Serbia, as it exported to the country goods for a total value of  259 million USD, while it imported for a value of 877 million USD. Yet, according to Western Balkans sources, in 2024 American exports to Serbia amounted to 739.4 million USD, while imports were around 670.1 million USD, resulting in a negative trade balance for Serbia and not the US and making the tariffs imposed on the country unjustifiable. This is indeed the main argument being used by Serbian government officials and diplomats to negotiate with the US.

The Western Balkans: A Region Unfairly Imposing Trade Barriers on the US or a Victim of a Bigger Trade War?

Yet, besides Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia may also face tariffs of 35% and 33% respectively on all their exports to the US, while the rest of the Western Balkans countries—namely Albania, Kosovo, and Montenegro—will have to deal with 10% tariffs on their exports. Certainly, President Trump decision has resulted in mixed reactions among the Western Balkans governments’ leaders, with some pondering the introduction of retaliatory measures while considering alternative markets, and others trying to bilaterally negotiate their way out of the US trade war through diplomatic channels.  Yet, the renegotiation of tariffs in this area is certainly not a priority for Washington and the negotiating power of the six Western Balkans (WB6) countries may be quite limited, considering the size of their national economies and their level of dependency on US products, especially in the field of digital services and technologies. Hence, with limited chances to define special arrangements, a solution for the WB6 to reduce the impact of tariffs on their economic competitiveness might be to increase domestic production and regional trade, turn to the EU—which already accounts for 66% of the region’s trade and maintains strong institutional ties with all six countries—or attempt to reinvigorate relations with other markets such as China or Russia.

The Multifaceted Economic and Political Impacts of the US Trade War on the Western Balkan Region

For the time being, what is clear is that the consequences of Trump’s commercial policies could change the structure of Western Balkans trade and political relations in the long term and in multiple ways. From an economic point of view, the value of Western Balkans exports to the US—mainly consisting of products from the agricultural, food, military, and mechanical industries—will probably face a significant reduction. Indeed, to remain competitive, Western Balkans companies will be forced either to cut their profit margins or to increase their prices in the US market. Yet, rising prices will probably push US consumers to turn to cheaper suppliers, with resulting job losses and negative repercussions on regional economic trends. Finally, the trade war will have detrimental effects on the Western Balkans’ political dynamics as well, with the risk of jeopardizing any regional stability achieved so far—in particular, the fragile peace between Serbia and Kosovo.

From Collaborative to Competing Powers: The Shifting Roles of the US and the EU in the Western Balkans

A reduced engagement of Washington in the Western Balkans, where democratic trends are already declining, might strengthen the role of the EU, or, on the contrary, reinforce the position of competing powers such as Russia or China. When it comes to the EU, beside the direct effects on the WB6, which traded with the US only 2% of their exports, US tariffs will undermine growth in the single market too and this will surely negatively impact the WB6 economies too, more than individualized tariffs per se. From a geo-political point of view, the absence of US political and economic influence in a region where the efforts of the two Atlantic partners used to be complementary—through the combination of European and NATO membership—risks destabilizing an area which is already geographically situated within the borders of the European Union. Such a fragility should push the EU to engage more with local governments and demand the implementation of the institutional and economic reforms needed to proceed with the enlargement path. So far, progress in the European integration of the Western Balkan countries has been limited, and the  hopes for future EU membership detained by the 60% of WB6 citizens who are still committed Europhiles, have too often been disappointed.

A happy ending for the WB6?

In the aftermath of Russia’s attacks on Ukraine, and following Ukraine’s candidacy for EU membership, the enlargement process was revitalized by reinvigorating the bloc’s understanding of the geopolitical importance of enlargement. Nonetheless, current rapid shift of the US strategy towards Russia, along with a perceived lack of EU political strength within the international arena, could push anti-EU and anti-Western forces in the region towards Russia or China. To date, Russia has already acquired significant influence in many of the WB6, especially in Serbia but also in North Macedonia, Montenegro, and Kosovo. At the same time, China is also strongly present, with several investments in major infrastructure projects and five of the Western Balkans Six being members of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The geopolitical implications of the WB6’s engagement with these powers will be highly costly, especially for the EU. In this framework, the EU needs to find the courage to decisively fill the power vacuum left by the US in the region and play a credible role in the Balkans. This could turn the US disengagement from the EU and the Western Balkans allies as a blessing in disguise, reinforcing European security, democracy and regional unity, while also proposing a possible happy ending to the long enlargement story of the WB6.

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