The German Traffic Light Has Gone Out, but Parliamentary Democracy Still Stands

The (final) clash over budget policies

According to the chronicles of the time, the casus belli would have been Chancellor Scholz’s demand to suspend the debt ceiling in order to allow for more public borrowing, which would have been necessary to implement presumably expansionary measures for the economy and domestic consumption. Finance Minister Lindner refused, arguing that this would be contrary to his mandate as defender of the national budget.

Scholz’s plan to save what can be saved – and lead to early elections

Scholz reacted by sacking Lindner and making the crisis official, while at the same time announcing that he intended to remain in the government in order to approve all urgent measures (starting with the crucial budget law) and that he intended to put the question of confidence in his role to a vote on 15 January. The aim is not to shore up the government, but to officially prove the lack of a majority for the incumbent chancellor: a necessary step to be able to ask President Steinmeier to dissolve the Bundestag and call early elections, probably at the end of March next year, six months before the natural end of the legislature. Scholz and what remains of his majority will have to look for the votes in the Bundestag to pass the laws declared unavoidable: it remains to be seen whether and to what extent the opposition, in particular the CDU/CSU led by Friedrich Merz, will be willing to support this strategy.

Merz’s scarce availability to cooperate

Merz has already stated that he considers 15 January too far away for a vote of confidence and dissolution and that, in his view, there is good reason to anticipate this step and the subsequent elections. In fact, an immediate dissolution of the Bundestag would leave the country without a budget law, forcing a Germany already in economic crisis to face the new year with an intolerable financial uncertainty for businesses and the public. For this reason, an agreement between CDU/CSU and SPD on the possible rapid adoption of the budget law and the other measures supported by what is left of the government could be hypothesised in exchange for an early vote of confidence and the likely early dissolution that would follow. Either way, clarity is urgently needed, because if there is one thing Germany cannot stand, it is political and economic uncertainty.

The solid resilience of Parlamentarism

Observing the affair from Italy, one cannot help but be struck by the fact that, in the face of such instability, no one, from the right to the left, is in any way calling for a „leader“ who would take over the leadership of the country through some form of direct investiture by the electorate, thus overcoming the conflicts typical of democratic parliamentarianism. Even exponents of the far-right AfD remain convinced that the right to govern is necessarily won through the election to the Bundestag, and then negotiate the terms of a possible majority on the basis of the balance of power that emerges from the election. Yet another lesson from Berlin on the true meaning of parliamentary democracy, the true heritage of European politics, for those who prefer plebiscitary strategies, such as those practised on the other side of the Atlantic, whose consequences for future global equilibrium remain to be defined.

What now, EU?

The German government crisis is a heavy news for the EU. Uncertainties in Berlin mean weakness and inability to act (and re-act) also in Brussels. Therefore, all members of the European Union (both States and citizens) should hope that Germany rapidly overcomes the current struggles and provides a new clear and stable political and economic leadership in short times. Of course, this leadership must stay consistent with the basic values of the German constitution, which also are the basic values of the EU. Despite their differences, the vaste majority of the German political parties and leaders still truly share these values, therefore is very likely that, whatever the results of the polls will be, the next German government will remain stuck to these principles. In these days of deep concerns and doubts this is a good news, after all.